It takes 2 to Brexit

Well, IT has finally happened.   Boris Johnson

has prorogued parliament in an attempt to stop it passing legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit… but beyond the hullabaloo about whether or not this is constitutional I’ve started to wonder if it really matters…

That’s not to say that the constitutional implications of Johnson’s decision to ask the Queen to scupper the parliamentary timetable aren’t important … but people seem to forget that it’s not just what Boris or Parliament wants that matters… but what the EU wants.

Article 50 was triggered by a vote in parliament that said this should happen by the 30^th of March 2017.  Theresa May wrote to the EU triggering article 50 on the 29^th of March 2017.   This set the two year clock ticking on Brexit negotiations.  

However, by 20^th of March 2019 it was clear that Parliament couldn’t agree to back Mrs May’s deal so an extension was sought.   The European Council agreed to a postponement until the 22^nd of May.   

Again Parliament, the Government and the European Council couldn’t agree so the deadline was postponed again to the 10^th of April.  This agreement required Mrs May to again grovel to the divided European Council in the most humiliating fashion ...

...but after Mrs May had chewed her way through a huge helping of humble pie Brexit was indeed delayed at the mercy of the EU leaders until 31st October 2019.  I expect by now however, their quality of mercy is becoming strained...

Now it could be that Parliament could force the Government to agree to a further extension by finding a way to pass more legislation to thwart Boris Johnson’s plans … but they can’t force the Prime Minister to negotiate a new deal with European Council and – although they say they want to avoid the UK crashing out the EU – it is by no means certain that the European Council will grant a further extension even if Parliament or the Prime Minister asks for it. 

At this point the European Council could well throw in the towel, say they don’t care and let a no-deal Brexit happen anyway.  Everyone seems to be forgetting that there are in fact two parties in the negotiations – the UK and the EU and either can walk away…

Of course one could ask why Parliament voted for a potential no deal Brexit in the first place …? presumably because they thought that Mrs May would be in a better negotiating position but … that didn’t seem to work, did it?  

All the omens are that the European Council will let the country crash out on the 31^st of October.  

At least that’s the case if legislation alone is used to solve the problem.  In my opinion there is no solution that’s workable to extend the deadline yet again that doesn’t involve removing Boris and replacing him with a caretaker administration.  Clearly there is no point in being Prime Minister if you can’t get your legislation through parliament and thus an election is very imminent.  But it is in my view a long shot that the European Council will grant another extension and sit back while the UK has yet another indecisive General Election.  They may well decide that the uncertainty has gone on too long, there’s nothing in it for them and make the decision for us by refusing to negotiate with either Boris, Jeremy, Ken or any other Prime Minister…

…and maybe that would be for the best.  Or maybe not...  We assume that if the Prime Minister asks the European Council for another extension then it will just give them one to avoid looking mean spirited in public.  But what if they don’t…?  The Council is made up of the leaders of all the EU countries and they have to answer to their domestic populations who may well think ...nah!  After all they too don’t have to do anything to avoid a no deal Brexit – it’s the default position.

As to how unconstitutional it all actually is… One remembers people saying Margaret Thatcher’s use of guillotine motions was unconstitutional.   They weren’t – they were just disrespectful and cynical - but soon New Labour took up the same tactics.  Boris isn’t breaking any rules … he’s just bending them like a clown making balloon animals for a children’s party…