Not Sleeping only Biden

 

To calculate the probability of dependent events you have to multiply them together.

Someone over 80 has a 10% chance of dying each year but we can't multiply together Biden's chances of dying each year because these are not truly independent events.  He can't die in 2025 and again in 2026.

We can however calculate his chances of still being alive each year by multiplying them together.  If you had a 10 sided dice that's the probability of not rolling a 1 multiplied by itself 4 times so ...

0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.66

So if elected Biden has ha 66% chance of living to the end of his Presidency and a 34% chance of dying in office.

Donald Trump's is probably only slightly better at ~25%

Tell me if I've done that wrong...