SCOTUS!

 

At the end of last year ….

…it was possible to believe that Donald Trump might eventually come to trial in one of his 4 criminal cases soon… but the wheels of justice would seem to still be turning at a glacial pace …

At the moment there are 4 potential criminal trials….

They are:

DC Trump Case: United States v. Donald J. Trump – This is the Federal level case about election interference brought by special Counsel Jack Smith

Georgia :  The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. – This is the one about the telephone call to the Georgia official asking him to find votes and the hounding of election officials in Georgia

Mar-a-Lago : United States v. Donald J. Trump, et al. – This is the one about the Top Secret documents that Donald stored in his bog to read on the toilet.

New York 2016 Election Interference Case : The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump – This is the one about Donald paying off Stormy Daniels for shagging him before the 2016 election.

An authoritative timeline of all the trials of Donald Trump is available on the Just Security website

Of these the nearest one to reaching an actual trial is the New York 2016 Election Interference Case.  

The DC Trump Case has been stalled because Trump argues that he has “absolute” Presidential Immunity and has taken his claim all the way up to the Supreme Court who will not be sitting again on it until April 22nd.  

Whether a Trial can be stayed by the Supreme Court investigating the liability of the President to prosecution is a matter that under the constitution  varies from state to state.  This is the reason that the DC case is stayed and the New York case is still on.  Also, the New York case is about actions that Donald Trump took before he became President and therefore it is much harder for him to claim Presidential immunity with regard to them as he was just an ordinary citizen at the time…

Donald Trump’s many legal nonsenses seem to be partially indulged by some people within the judicial system who are painfully aware that imprisoning the potential Presidential nominee could effectively create a constitutional crisis.  This may be why the Supreme Court is entertaining Trump’s claim of some form of Presidential immunity.  It may be they claim he has partial immunity for some actions that he or others perceive as “official acts”…

There have also been various attempts to get Trump removed from the ballot under the 14th Amendment for Inciting Insurrection.  However, the Supreme Court has just ruled that this clause can only be implemented by Congress.  Any other ruling would have caused a Constitutional Crisis of the Judiciary vs Voters.  However, the can has in some sense just been kicked down the road – there could still be a challenge between the election and the inauguration… Interestingly this also throws open the question that if it’s up to Congress to enforce the exclusions does this mean that the exclusion of non-US-born citizens is also effectively overturned and now just for Congress to police if they’re in the mood…?

Could the Simpsons vision actually happen?  Of course, the election isn’t ALL about Trump …there are many issues and well as Bill Clinton would have said “the economy, stupid”.  America’s recently had a tough time… and if you’re a Republican Trump is THE candidate… the other nominees with the exception of Chris Christie being, as Mrs Slocombe would have said, as weak as water.   I don’t want to be ageist but my parents are 84 and spend a lot of time in the evening and afternoon sleeping.  The idea Biden is fully awake … then again Biden has staff…. 

Another bizarre facet of the process is that Donald Trump seems to be allowed by the GOP to avoid ever publicly debating with his party  opponents meaning few of his  arguments/statements are being scrutinized.  It's hard to imagine such a thing happening in the UK where every party elects it's candidates using local hustings... But then under our Parliamentary constitution even the PM has to face a weekly grilling by MPs.  All the Trump has to endure is some "Town Halls" and hand picked sycophantic journalists.  The penny seems to have finally dropped for Ms Hayley  that if she's going to even dent his following she has to risk attacking his base ... There's a psychological and practical reason parties don't want to defrenstrate their leaders.  Since the Conservatives dumped Boris Johnson in response to his Partygate criminal fines they've suffered catastrophic polling results...

Such is an existential crisis.  Dumping your leader for criminal behaviour can have devastating consequences... Even when it's just for sharing a birthday cake during lockdown... Some of this can be explained by the economy... But what is a personality cult if you lose the personality?  Trump seems to tap into some level of nostalgia and seems now to be able to sell his former presidency as a golden age when people were better off...

The gloves come off between the Judiciary and the former POTUS when Jury selection starts on March the 25th.  That trial will last a couple of months.  The SCOTUS should hear aural argument on former Presidential Immunity on April 22nd and then…?  There is also the question of cash…  Trump owes $450,000,000 from his Civil Fraud Trial and is running out of time to find money for a Bond.  He also owes $83,000,000 in punative libel damages; he also recently lost a libel action in the UK High Court.  A GoFundMe was launched but is only raising enough money to cover the daily interest… His legal representatives consequently seem to go even more downmarket and eccentric…

Even if he is clearly guilty will he actually be convicted or will the jury return a perverse verdict knowing the constitutional consequences of a guilty verdict?