2 grown ups go to the cinema

"Under normal circumstances there would be nothing wrong with them [the Sussexes] going to a film premiere. But at a time when his father is going under the knife and Jamaica is making noises about ditching the monarchy, this is rather insensitive"
 

X rated

Questions.

Elon says I can monetise my twitter feed if I have over 500 followers.

I block 10 sex workers a week.

Should I stop blocking them for pecuniary gain?

If I do does that make me a pimp?

 

The strange story of Yasser Arafat and Po 210

I'm a bit too busy to do this blog at the moment but sometimes a story comes up that is so weird you think ...I've got to make time...

The other day I heard a Zionist say on Twitter that no Palestinian had ever won a Nobel Peace Prize and so I said “Yasser Arafat did”.  Then I remembered why.  He won one for the Oslo Peace accords with Yitzhak Rabin.  Rabin was also rewarded for his peace efforts by being assassinated and Yasser I guessed had long since shuffled off his mortal coil due to old age.  Or did he?

It must have slipped me by at the time as I was on bigger tings but after Arafat died in 2004 of a stroke, Al Jazeera carried out a nine-month investigation in which they concluded that there was a suspicious amount of Polonium on his personal belongings.  Swiss experts studied 38 of Arafat’s clothes/belongings and discovered that the levels of Polonium were rather high.  Polonium is number 210 on the periodic table – there’s not a lot of it about.  Their paper was so plausible it made it into top UK medical journal “The Lancet”?  So was he assassinated?  Or was it contamination from somewhere else?  If so how would he have picked it up?  A further different Swiss team, a French team and a Russian team then all attempted a similar analysis to see if they could simulate the same results as the original team.  The Swiss forensic team did a bone analysis from Yasser’s body which had not been cremated and found levels of polonium in Arafat's ribs and pelvis 18 to 36 times normal.  Keep in mind that the Polonium isotopes are unstable so the level would have been even higher when he was buried – the half-life of Polonium 210 is 138 days.  Al Jazeera produced a forensic scientist to say that this was a “smoking gun” whilst another professor at University College London remarked it was as fishy as an aquarium.  

Okay, what he actually said was “it seems likely what they're doing is putting a very cautious interpretation of strong data”.  

The French and Russian teams claimed however that they could not replicate the analysis and found no Polonium.  Palestinian official Wasel Abu Yousef however remained convinced that “The French report is politicized and is contrary to all the evidence which confirms that the president was killed by poisoning".  

Even if this wasn’t true one might expect more publicity about the case given what happened with the other well known poisoning case …  Mr Litvinenko….  It took only 10 micrograms of 210 Po to kill Alexander.

From a political perspective the most worrying thing about this case is not whether or not Yasser was murdered but the thought that if he was then both* the main Oslo Accord Nobel Peace Prize winners were assassinated… so what hope is there?

The other question is that, if this wasn’t an assassination attempt …where did the Polonium 210 come from?  As a highly unstable element … you can’t mine it … the only place it comes from is from a nuclear reactor …I think you have to bombard bismuth 209 Bi with neutrons?  Was someone trying to build a bomb?  Maybe … but in a hospital?  Then again, the IDF tells us these days that all Palestinian hospitals are actually hiding Hamas soldiers so …er… whatever…

The original paper can be found here (you’ll forgive me if I can’t be arsed with proper Havard Referencing it’s been a long day – please don’t sack me for poor referencing like Dr. Claudine Gay)

And here’s the Abstract…

In 2011, we found abnormal levels of polonium-210 ((210)Po) in some of Arafat's belongings that were worn during his final hospital stay and which were stained with biological fluids. This finding led to the exhumation of Arafat's remains in 2012. Significantly higher (up to 20 times) activities of (210)Po and lead-210 ((210)Pb) were found in the ribs, iliac crest and sternum specimens compared to reference samples from the literature (p-value <1%). In all specimens from the tomb, (210)Po activity was supported by a similar activity of (210)Pb. Biokinetic calculations demonstrated that a (210)Pb impurity, as identified in a commercial source of 3MBq of (210)Po, may be responsible for the activities measured in Arafat's belongings and remains 8 years after his death. The absence of myelosuppression and hair loss in Mr Arafat's case compared to Mr Litvinenko's, the only known case of malicious poisoning with (210)Po, could be explained by differences in the time delivery-scheme of intake. 

In conclusion, statistical Bayesian analysis combining all the evidence gathered in our forensic expert report moderately supports the proposition that Mr Arafat was poisoned by (210)Po.

*the other person to share the prize Shimon Peres fell off his perch naturally in 2016

Not Sleeping only Biden

 

To calculate the probability of dependent events you have to multiply them together.

Someone over 80 has a 10% chance of dying each year but we can't multiply together Biden's chances of dying each year because these are not truly independent events.  He can't die in 2025 and again in 2026.

We can however calculate his chances of still being alive each year by multiplying them together.  If you had a 10 sided dice that's the probability of not rolling a 1 multiplied by itself 4 times so ...

0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.66

So if elected Biden has ha 66% chance of living to the end of his Presidency and a 34% chance of dying in office.

Donald Trump's is probably only slightly better at ~25%

Tell me if I've done that wrong...

Greenwasher of the day - e.on

Greenwasher of the Day : We haven't actually spent any money on replacing our Diesel vans with Electric ones but we've paid to cover them with adverts telling you we'll do it when we get around to it... 
 

"Papers!"

Was thinking about the ritual of voting the other day and looking forward to walking over the road to the Church Hall to see all the stuffed shirts from the parties who no doubt choose church halls to have their elections in because they think they're less likely to be sworn at on consecrated ground...

...when I remembered that all my votes are postal now because I can't be doing with that being asked for ID thing ...

Not the same...

 

No man is an island

Just been followed on twitter by someone whose biog reads "Don't let others define you. Don't let the past confine you."

So taking his advice I blocked him ...

Belting along...

 

We'll never see the likes of Starskey or Hutch again 

Detectives that never wore seatbelts

Yet never went through the windscreen 

You just can't get the variable inertia anymore

The Spirit of Christmas is Hard Work

 

It remains bizarre to me what people find controversial.  Recently I read on Facebook a story about a family that own a Newsagents who opened on Christmas Day from 12-2pm.  

They claimed to have been doing this for 20 years and to have formed a community hub and offered people “hugs and mince pies… “  To you and me that's a freebie worth 31p each - tax deductible so probably actually 25p if you claim the VAT back...

I wont name their establishment because firstly I don’t think they need any more publicity and secondly I don’t want to attack anyone personally .... they all seem very sincere people but...

Firstly, I asked the obvious question “Is it Legal?”

The Christmas Day (Trading) Act 2004 (c 26) is an Act makes it illegal to open a retail establishment on Christmas Day unless your shop is smaller than 280 m^2 / 3,000 sq ft.  

For those of you who for whom a square meters is hard to visualise, a Tennis Court is ~260m^2 (I would have done a football pitch to sound more working class but apparently they vary in size) ...

...and the floorspace of the average London double decker Routemaster bus is ~40m^2 if you count both decks…

Interestingly the 280 m^2 law only accounts for two dimensions so one could in theory have a shop as high as Nelson’s Column and supply the customers with very long ladders but for some reason no one has yet exploited this loophole but anyway...

I have to say the owners of the shop spun a good yarn about the many lost souls they had encountered on Christmas Day but I found it statistically unlikely for so many interesting events to have happened within what they claimed to only ever be the space of two hours each Christmas Day…

The “be kind” mob however were ever so angry at me suggesting that given the Unions had had to campaign for the right for the workers to knock off Christmas Day opening on it might not be a totally good idea ...?

....even if you don't employ anyone except your own family 

...who I'm sure are thrilled to be working the one day everyone else isn't....  

“They’re giving back to the community,” they said… maybe but then.... aren't there other things you could do to give back that don't involve running a business at the same time?

“They’re not Open", intoned another.

So I asked what part of their sign saying “We’re Open” did he not understand?

The Facebook page suddenly became alive with lots of people who were very angry and told me I was full of anger and asked when did I ever do anything for the rest of society?  

Well, not on Christmas Day.  Unlike these local heroes I do not see everyone as my family.  I have a family and they are not everybody else.  I mean, I'm not a huge fan of Christmas but it is a nice symbolic gesture that once a year there's one day that almost everyone has off... Unless they're providing a vital service ... which retail is not.

Still, the Greek Chorus intoned they were doing something for other people.  

Well, if you really want to do community work on Christmas Day I'm sure there are opportunities that don't involve running a retail business but they wouldn't make the Metro's "12 Acts of Kindness" ... which I struggled through a lot of clickbait to read making me feel a bit better about the intrusive adverts on this page which are comparatively discrete.  By the way, don't let the fact I'm writing this as a community service stop you clicking on the adverts... I'm not in it for the money.  It's a vocation.  I do it all out of kindness.

Other ludicrous arguments advanced included that “these people are pensioners” but at 50 I’m nearly a pensioner myself so what’s that to me?  Well, okay 50's not that old but still ... I'm nearer the end than the beginning anyway...  

There were also passive aggressive sneers posing as arguments such as “U OK Hun?” – something I have not yet been able to decode despite extensive referencing of the Urban Dictionary site.  

“Are you a Union Rep?” asked one person.  

Well, no but I’m in the Union and 97% of people they surveyed said retail workers should not be working Boxing Day and Christmas Day.  I think the Union would take a dim view of this kind of thing now you bring it up ...as for retail to work so do all the distribution chains etc... 

...and if these people open why don't the many Tesco and Sainsburys Metros which are all smaller than 280 m^2 to get round the 6 hours Sunday Trading Laws?  Now, I'm not part of what  the late Victor Lewis Smith used to call the "Keep Sundays Miserable Campaign" but... perhaps one day of the year...?

“Is it too much?” I asked “for people to have one day off capitalism a year?”.  

And then I tried to explain the ridiculous expectations some people have that everything should be Open All Hours… but I suppose if you haven’t experienced it, you don’t understand it.

So then the "Be Kind" mob blocked me …as that's what kindness is...

...so I’ll leave the last word to the great philosopher DICKY07549:

Christmas is for dogs...

Visiting Morrisons I was delighted to discover some very pretty looking Christmas treats...

...only to be disappointed on discovering they are for dogs... 

Silly me , but then ... I went into Sainsbury's and ...

...the same thing happened again.  Found some nice sweets and only later realised....

Why do dogs have better treats that people?

Maybe people can't afford to have children?

More Rubbish from the Council

Croydon Council : You can only complain about misses bin collections within a 48 hour time window.  Consult your calendar.

Croydon Council bin collection calendar: Collections will change over the Christmas and New Year period and may 

take place up to four days later than usual. This calendar shows your revised 

collection days where appropriate.

Melania becomes a shrinking violet...

 

Oi! Hollywood! No!

Oi, Paul Hollywood!  No!  I do not want to buy a multi seeded bake-it-yourself roll!

If you couldn't be bothered to  bake it, I can't be bothered to  buy it!

10 minutes at 220 degrees C 

You must think I'm made of money...?

Yes or No?

Since this blog has started generating a miniscule income, I suppose I ought to start generating some content again rather than let it become just another clickbait hole on the internet …although why people have started visiting when I’ve been far too busy to post anything must remain an economic mystery. 

I haven’t stopped caring about things but the News these days is so depressing one does not want to say anything much.  Possibly the most depressing News item in recent days has been Elise Stefanik, Republican of New York, repeatedly asking the presidents of M.I.T., Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania if calling for the genocide of Jews violated the code of conduct at their schools and only agreeing to accept Yes or No answers.  

Those she interrogates are, of course, being questioned under oath, therefore they have to tell the truth by repeating their policies as they are now – not as people might like them to be.  

Ms Stefanik does not discuss how the policies might be changed or altered to accommodate any issues she has isolated.  She seems to simply be indulging in the obvious fallacy of bifurcation which works like this...

Either the Professors say that “calling for the genocide of Jews” is expressly classed as a violation of their Institutions’ Policies in all circumstances which would be a lie on oath (perjury) and immoral …

…or they state that “calling for the genocide of Jews” is NOT expressly classed as a violation of their institutions’ bullying policies in all circumstances - replies which the interviewer has decided represent “Unacceptable Answers Across the Board”.  

Therefore, her interviewees are in a no-win situation as there is no attempt here at dialogue or compromise.  Only binary answers are allowed. 

When told that the answers depend upon the context, Ms Stefanik responds that there is no context in which “calling for the genocide of Jews” is not bullying and harassment.  

I have to say that she may have a point here as it is very difficult indeed to think of a context in which this was not bullying and harassment but that doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t consider the possibility that one exists.  I just haven’t thought of it yet...  Perhaps the problem may in fact be that the extant bullying policies are designed for individuals not groups and need to be amended to take into account the phenomenon of group not just individual bullying tactics...

However, Ms Stefanik immediately jumps to the opinion that the solution to this sticky situation is for all the Professors to resign immediately and collectively.  Whereas a more sensible solution might seem to be to review the policies of the Colleges and simply amend them where they appear to be deficient.  It may be that the Professors are indeed naive as to the nature of antisemitism but that doesn't automatically make them all bad people with nefarious motives…

My suspicion that Elise Stefanik may have an ulterior motive for her combative style is fed slightly by her tweeting after one of the Professors resigned “one down, two to go”... why insist that the Professors must resign?  Perhaps it is because she used to sit on the Harvard Institute of Politics Senior Advisory Committee but was sacked in 2021 for objecting to Pennsylvania's electoral votes after the storming of the U.S. Capitol.

According to the Politico website (see here) “Elise has made public assertions about voter fraud in November’s presidential election that have no basis in evidence, and she has made public statements about court actions related to the election that are incorrect,” Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas Elmendorf wrote in a letter. “Moreover, these assertions and statements do not reflect policy disagreements but bear on the foundations of the electoral process through which this country’s leaders are chosen.”  

Now you could argue that is Whataboutery but I have to wonder if her false dichotomy or inability to consider that perhaps there might be context dependent issues is part of a binary thinking model that is ultimately unhelpful.  At one point she even tells one of her interviewees "The answer is "Yes"".  Well, if you already know the answer why are you asking?  As Horace Rumpole used to say, the cardinal rule of cross examination is never ask a question to which you do not already know the answer... but this seems taking that mantra a bit far...

The walls are closing in on ex-President Trump with his fraud case due to conclude in January, his next Libel case due to come up in February and his first criminal trial slated to start 4th of March 2024 but even if he finally receives his comeuppance… he is just the man at the summit of the Maga cult.  Many Elise Stefanikes sit below…

 

Glenn K's Justice Matters

 The ultimate guide to all Trump's legal shenanigans.  I cannot praise this guy strongly enough.  He may be a bit of a stuffed shirt but his attention to detail is painstaking...