...and the good news is the UK is still at 3rd place ...the bad news is that the UK is at 3rd place ... and the really bad news is that the death per confirmed case ratio for the UK has risen from 12 to 15 per cent. This is probably due to the two week death reporting timelag. Also the figures have now been revised.
I have also discovered that you don't actually need to endure the Downing Street briefings anymore - all the stats are directly downloadable from the govenrment website away from the waffle...
The statistics don't actually show a drop in the infection rate as yet ...unless you offset this by taking into account that more tests are taking place.
One thing I have thought about mathematically is how the R value changes the infection rate...
...in the graph above the X axis represents each transmission from an original transmitter ... 1,2,3,4,5 ...are the first, second, third, forth, fifth transmissions of the virus from 1 person to the next person.
An R value of only 1.1 gives you 14 other infections after 29 retransmission stages
An R value of 0.9 will eventually reduce the number to infections to 0
but it will take 29 retransmission stages for this to happen...
In other words the transmission rate when R is greater than one mirrors an exponential function
but when R goes less than one the decrease conversely only appears to be a logarithmic function...?
%20(2).jpeg)
No comments:
Post a Comment