He was the best of swings …he was the worst of swings…

So how bad was Jeremy Corbyn’s defeat…?  We are told it was the worst performance for Labour since 1935 …but was it…?  

Labour lost 60 seats in the election dropping from 262 to 202 – a 7.4 swing against the party.  This means that Labour now have less seats than after Michael Foot’s disastrous 1983 election failure.  

However although in 1983 Foot won 209 seats the swing against the party under Foot was an even more massive 9.3 per cent.  Foot got ~ 8.5 million votes whereas Corbyn got ~ 10.2 million.  So is it fair to compare?

After some thought I’ve decided that it doesn’t seem sensible to evaluate the result in terms of votes as voter turnout was much lower in the 80s.  No one turned out to vote for Foot as it was seen as almost a foregone conclusion that Mrs Thatcher would win.  What really matters is swing.  So let’s look at the swings…

Historically there have not been very many big Labour majorities …or indeed very many Labour majorities.   

In 1935 Clement Attlee achieved a massive swing to Labour of 7.4 per cent almost tripling the number of Labour seats from 52 to 154.  

He then achieved another landslide with a 9.7 per cent swing in 1945 which almost doubled Labour’s seats from 154 to 393 – in terms of swing this performance has never been bettered (Corbyn came closest with a 9.6 per cent swing).  One possible explanation for it was that due to world war two there had been no general election for 10 years and possibly people were a bit miffed about this and cheered up by the end of the war so the 1945 election turned into something special...

After that it was all downhill.  Attlee suffered only a 1.5 per cent swing against him in 1950 but because the votes were all in the wrong places his majority was slashed by 78 seats leaving him with 315 – a majority of only 5.  

Following another election in 1951 Attlee again managed a small swing towards him of 2.7 per cent but again the votes were in the wrong places so his seat number was reduced to 295.  

Churchill wisely targeted the Liberal vote and this resulted in a 4.6 per cent swing to the Tories which propelled him back into power for most of the rest of the 50s.  In 1955 Attlee had another negative swing of 2.4 per cent and the Labour party was reduced to 277 seats. 

Hugh Gaitskell lead Labour to another defeat in 1955 with another 2.6 per cent swing against the party which reduced their seats further to 258.

But in 1964 Harold Wilson managed a 0.2 per cent swing to the Labour Party and there was a 6 per cent swing against the Tories with the Liberals hoovering up most of these votes but not translating them into seats.  

This propelled Wilson into power with 258 seats - a majority of 4.  Wilson cemented his majority with a further election in 1966 which gave him a 3.9 per cent swing which increased his seats to 364 – giving him a majority of 98.

In 1970 following a few Labour economic cock ups Ted Heath managed to get a 4.5 per cent swing which reduced Labour back down to 288 seats.  Giving the Ted a majority of 31.  In the 3-day-week “who governs Britain” election of Febuary 1974 both Wilson and Heath managed to get large negative swings against them (5.9 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively) as Jeremy Thorpe hoovered up the discontent to almost double the number liberal MPs from 6 to 11.  

With nobody actually winning Wilson called another election and this time round managed to get a 2 per cent swing which propelled Labour back into power with 301 seats (a majority of 3).  By 1979 this majority had gone and Wilson’s successor Callaghan had fallen out with the Liberals so a general election was forced by Mrs Thatcher tabling a vote of no confidence.

In 1979 Labour fell from 319 seats to 261 following a 2.3 swing away from Labour. 

In 1983 Michael Foot – who like Mr Corbyn compiled his manifesto by consulting with the membership rather than the voters – achieved his record 9.3 per cent negative swing against Labour which reduced the party to 209 seats.  

Although it seemed Mrs Thatcher would be there forever Neil Kinnock gradually eroded Mrs T’s majorities with a 3.2 per cent swing in 1987 that increased the party’s seats to 229 and a further swing of 3.6 per cent in 1992 that helped the party crawl up to 271.  

When then Tony Blair achieved his 1997 super swing of 8.8 per cent the party was already starting from a very high base that propelled it to a massive 418 seats.

From here it was all downhill again as Blair suffered a negative swing of 2.5 per cent in 2001 reducing the party to 413 seats and an Iraq War created negative swing of 5.5 per cent in 2005 which reduced the party to 403.  

 Following the financial crash Gordon Brown then achieved a futher negative swing of 6.2 per cent reducing the party to 258 seats and allowing the Liberal Democrats and David Cameron’s Conservatives to form a coalition.

The much maligned Ed Miliband actually achieved a 1.4 per cent positive swing to Labour but this didn’t translate into seats and the party’s seat share dropped further to 232. 

And following a disastrous campaign by Theresa May in her own snap election of 2017 Jeremy Corbyn actually achieved a 9.6 per cent swing to Labour.  However, much of this was the result of increased voter turnout which saw the Conservatives also pick up a swing of 5.5 per cent.  So Jeremy was still stuck on 262 seats.   

Mr Corbyn's negative 7.9 per cent swing this time round then brought Labour back down to 202 seats so… there you have it – the enigma that is Jeremy Corbyn…

 

He was the best of swings* …he was the worst of swings…

*within 0.1 per cent of the best anyway...

I guess this is why everyone is so eager to "upload to the cloud"...

Hi there and Thank you very much for getting in touch with us and we are delighted to have received your application!

The job consists of answering messages in English language sent to us by customers who are chatting on an online social community.  

Our operators reply to these messages using a web-based interface on their computer (you would be working from home). 

Because we need to chat about whatever the customer is interested in, it is highly likely that the conversations will be of an adult (flirty/erotic/explicit) nature with mostly male clients and we need agents with a very high standard of written English on par with native English language to converse with those customers – this is an absolute must that you are fluent in English and your written English must be of that high standard also. Perfect grammar, punctuation and capitalisation are all required.

You will not be hired if this criteria is not met.

You must have a laptop/desktop PC as our platforms do not function on mobile devices. A good strong high speed reliable internet connection is also required.

You must also have your own bank account or PayPal account to receive payments from us in Euros.

There are geographical areas we are not currently hiring from, if you are found to have been dishonest in your initial application as to where you are located, your application will be rejected.

You will be working as part of our UK Team – hence the importance for great English Language Skills. Payment is per message which is sent, 10 Euro cents per sent message.  Payment is made monthly, either by PayPal (be sure your account is set up to receive Euros) or by international bank transfer, whichever suits you better.

You are required to book shifts at least 12 shifts per week – each shift is one hour - we are busiest 00.00 to 10.00 UK times and we do ask that you book hours on the weekend too as we are very busy there. But we are very flexible too as we hope you can be.

We provide you with a training session with one of our UK Team Leaders who has worked on the chats since the inception, here you can get a proper example of the chats.

You would also be provided with a training manual in advance which comprehensively outlines anything you're remotely liable to encounter as well as a guide to effective messages. In reality though, I believe the job description and chat interface are fairly straightforward and simple. There is ongoing support all the way through your time with us too.

You would be hired by us, Cloudworkers Ltd on a freelance basis, meaning you are self-employed.

Cloudworkers Ltd has a contract with the chat owner, who runs the project for multiple languages and nationalities, and we provide the agents for his various projects. You will be working on all English speaking platforms.

How does this sound to you? Like something you are keen to be part of? If so, then please reply and I shall send out all the necessary paperwork for you to complete and return to me.

I hope to hear from you soon.  

CLOUDWORKERS COMPANY

Recruiting Office

Dear Cloudworkers Company,
Sorry there are only two things I won't do to pay the bills. Porn and night shifts. This job would appear to combine the two so I will leave it open for a more suitably qualified sex worker. Thank you for the opportunity.
Cheers
Anthony Miller

It's not easy being an armchair warrior...

People think it's easy being an armchair Internet warrior but the costs are high.  I received this email a year ago yesterday (name & address withheld) from one of my more right wing correspondents and felt I should share it withe the rest of you in the interests of health & safety:

It is 20 years this months since I last went to work. In that time I have put in several tens of thousands of hours campaiging to leave
the EU, against speed cameras.

I had vowed to give up on politics after the referendum, whatever the result but the uncertainties that remain meant I didn't do so.  Unfortunately the many thousands of hours I have spent sitting on this settee using a laptop have taken a toll, and not just then increasingly common one of a stiff neck.

It now seems highly likely that the severe pains I have suffered for the past month or more, in my left side and lower back, are due primarily to trapped wind arising from hours of inactivity in the same position. I therefore have no alternative but to cut down drastically and spend more time on my feet, moving about and perhaps
feeling less stressed will help too.

I mention these problems not to seek sympathy but warn others of the damage they too might be doing to their health by spending too much time in these ways.

Acordingly I must ask all of my contacts not to send me any emails about politics or news in general. I have unsubscribed from
Conservative Home and will therefore not be circulating its newsletter.

My work on speed camera analysis, now almost complete, will continue for a few months, so emails and news on that one subject will still be welcomed.

All the best to those who have fought the good fight

~~~~~

.... I was wondering why my spam box hadn't been filling with more dubious misunderstandings of Newtonian Physics recently when I googled Idris Francis to find he died earlier this year aged 79.  Seems his bowel problem wasn't just wind after all...

Peter Oborne bemoans..

"There will be no way back from Johnson’s Brexit. Whatever the possible economic damage inflicted by Corbyn and his chancellor John McDonnell, it will last for a maximum of five years before they can be kicked out by the electorate." 

What a depressingly accurate analysis that about nails the Hobson's choice on offer this election - economic ruin or economic ruin. 

Time to trudge over the road and put my cross next to Labour as I do every election no matter what lunatic policies, illegal wars, ppps or other nonsense its potential potentates are perusing this time...

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-destroy-britain-conservative-revolutionary-sect?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Who says boarding schools are bad...?

In other news my ex-English teacher at secondary school has been in the dock again.  It seemed before he came to our school he spent a lot of time in Catholic boarding schools giving the boarders singing lessons and tucking children in at night with a bit too much enthusiasm.  He was put away for 10 years in 2015 for abusing 10 boys aged under 14 between 1978 and 1984.  In total 15 counts of indecent assault but since then more people have come out of the shadows to accuse him.  He pled guilty and got 2 more years this time - to add on to his 10.

I know it's a cliche but I did think it was a bit odd that he very often had a box of sweets.





One day Mr Lowe took us on a school trip to the Fairfield Halls.  On the way we stopped at his house … which I thought was unusual but sort of not that odd …maybe he wanted to pick something up... but how many teachers take part of the class round their house even if it is local to where they’re going?  He lived in a small terrace house in Croydon not far from the venue with his wife and five children.

I can’t remember how many of us there were but it was a nice summer evening and I remember thinking that the house was very small for seven people - let alone 7 people and half the class .  I also remember his daughter who was a toddler waving at us from an upstairs window.   We waved back.  She waved back.  We waved back.  She waved back.  And then she disappeared and shortly afterwards there was a comedy thudding sound and shortly after that Mr Lowe reappeared from the house to say simply “she fell off the trunk”.

Mr Lowe then drove us on to the Fairfield Halls where as I remember we watched a production of Stephen Sondheim’s musical of Sweeney Todd before it was made fashionable by Johnny Depp …or it could have been something else.  Long time ago.

But why on earth did we stop at his house and go into it at all?  The same reason he invited kids at his previous school to his wedding?  It's probably nothing but...

With hindsight one wonders what was really going on... Shortly after this he threw me out his class for doing no work whatsoever ... but I suspect probably I was just too old for him.